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Dalal Street Week Ahead: Expect Nifty50 To Consolidate Without Much Downside

The domestic equity market had a better-than-expected week. Despite a bout of consolidation in the initial days, the benchmark Nifty50 ended the week on a buoyant note, putting on net gains of 184 points or 2.02 per cent on a weekly basis.

On the expected lines, select outperformance was seen from Midcap and banks, and some consolidation was seen on the auto counter. In the coming week, the picture will get clearer.

There are signs of consolidation on the daily charts and virtually no sign of any reversal in the primary uptrend was seen on the daily or weekly charts. This translates into buoyant outlook for the coming week.

We can expect fierce consolidation with some volatility given the overbought nature of the market, but no significant downside is expected.

The 9,360 and 9,450 levels will act as resistance in the coming week while supports will come in at 9,220 and 9,150 levels.

The weekly RSI stood at 70.0947 and it was a bullish signal as it marked a fresh 14-period high, though it is mildly overbought. The weekly MACD continued to remain bullish as it traded above its signal line.

Pattern analysis on the weekly charts presented a buoyant picture. It showed that the Nifty was resuming an uptrend again after a brief sideways consolidation after the main breakout from the triple-top formation. Given the overbought nature of the markets on the weekly charts and multiple pattern resistance on the daily charts, we may see the markets spend some time in a broad range.

All and all, it is extremely important to note that though we may continue to see intermittent bouts of profit taking given the multiple pattern resistances that the market may encounter, there are no signs of reversal of the primary uptrend. We may also see some volatility creeping in over next week.
However, all corrective actions should be utilised to make fresh purchases. The 45% wider-than-normal bands may not allow a runaway rise in the Nifty50, but the inherent structure of the market remains buoyant.

A study of Relative Rotation Graphs or RRG showed that PSU banks and Bank Nifty are expected to further improve the relative outperformance again the Nifty 50. Auto and energy universe is also expected to outperform, while pharma is likely to continue to lag and metals and IT stocks are expected to remain weak. Financial services and midcap universe will see pockets of outperformance, while Infrastructure and FMCG counters may consolidate more.


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